I haven't formed a thesis yet, but I've been thinking a lot lately about Russia and Islam.

My question is, if Al Queda wanted to defeat the west (America) then why would they attack when they were still so weak and had to rely on David-esque tactics vs. Goliath? With the large Islam population in Russia and with Russia still trying to get their legs underneath them, it would have seemed a better initial target than the USA. It would seem as though a less intense insurgency would have a much quicker and profound effect upon Russia and with a choke-hold upon not only Russia but every surrounding ex-Soviet state would have given Al Queda the base it needed to wage all-out war upon a more equal western coalition.

Further, I wonder what machinations are currently underway in this direction, ie. what sort of insurgent operations, civil, miliatry, and psychological are happening in the former USSR right now?

Still further, being that Russia currently allows the freedom of religion for not only Muslims but also Jews; I wonder how much of an obstacle that was/is to the Al Queda intent.

Is it that Russia is still so crippled that they would only offer more problems upon domination than benefits? Is Russia, even though crippled, still a solid world power that was more impervious to insurgency than they might seem?

I haven't developed the thesis any further than that.


http://reference.allrefer.com/countr.../russia82.html
http://lists.ysu.edu/pipermail/urban...er/000121.html
http://www.islam101.com/history/population2_usa.html
http://www.jrn.columbia.edu/studentw...-04-27/193.asp

 

Russia for all its instability is anything but unstable. The agents of stability are those that keep it in a constant state of instability.

Basicly for the balance of power to function properly they need a certain level of corruption, crime, etc. I am no expert in russian afairs but ill be damned if there aint some truth in the above. (if it wasnt for organized crime in russia, corruption in buisness and politics i dont think russia would be nearly as stable as it is today)

And if it ****s with their ability to make money.. it aint gonna happen. If it allows them to make more money.. watch out. Right now i dont see terror and AQ being a massive revenue stream (other then to pull in international funs to fight said groups, fabricated or not).

 

You're most likely right. If they were at all stable, I can't see the terrorists passing up THAT big of an opportunity.

 

Once terrorism becomes profitable in russia.. then you better watch out.

dont see that happening anytime soon even arms trading and what not.. that is just to small of a racket compared to leveraging out the natural resources of russia (think oil, natural gas, etc).

So yeah.. short of some crazy *** change or revolution in .ru i dont see aq turning into the next .af

 

Terrorists are stupid in his case. It seems like there's three major criteria that must be met before considering a target country. They have to have a western society (USA & Russia), also need to be a major world power (Russia is below the radar in this case) and they must not have an Islamic state of government (USA has all three). I don't think religious freedom falls into this equation which further proves the criteria. Afterall, Jews are free to practice in Iran as well (which is an Islamic state). You may be looking into it too much as well. Your thesis may be that anti-Americanism blinds terrorists from opportunity and logical thought. I see your point though... Russia would still be a worthwhile target.

 

I think that attacking America was never an issue; it was only a matter of when. In trying to think about the future, I'm thinking of all possible courses of action that I'm able to (which means that I'm pretty limited due to my little brain.)

The initial thought about how much more powerful would the extremists be if they were to have targeted Russia and saturated her with extremist islamism. How long would it have taken? Why did they choose not to go that route (Was the scope of Russia's entire geographical area too overwhelming? Was current Russian idealism an obstacle in some form? Did Russia's disorganization and corruption make them not worth it?)

Regardless whether the US and coalition forces are winning, not winning, losing (dependant upon point of view), I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that the insurgency is not winning, if I understand their overall mission and intent.

That's assuming that they didn't elect their methods and times of execution (9/11, USS Cole, Beirut, Khobar Towers.....) to just be a thorn in the side of the USA. I can't deny that their methods haven't been effective and haven't affected global changes, but if their intent was to destroy the west, I can imagine that they could have been and still could be more effective than they are now.

 

Muslim extremist attack US and US interests, because of the politics in US. Too much drama and talking and not enough action.

In Russia, every time terrorists strike a target, Russian forces wipe out whole cities...

US hands are tied and that prevents them to ACT like they should. If that was not the case, war in Iraq would have been over long time ago. However, political correctness and fear of negative press, prevent US troops from doing their job.

In Russia, they don't really care about that stuff. Political correctness comes second to the interests of the national security and long term prosperity.

 

Now, that I can see. I think Israel even takes a distant 2nd to Russia when it comes to those countries who act without any concern about diplomacy and global opinion.

 

that and you would think the general russian population would be pretty anti muslim extremist with the whole chechyna thing..

 

From the first link I posted:Russian Muslims may still have to be careful what they say or do, but I'd imagine that the threat of a pogrom directed towards Muslims won't soon happen. 19% of 143 million is still 27 million.

 

They are, yet they are not beating people on the street who resemble Chechens...