WindingRoad

iTrader: (15)

Way off-topic but, I'm pretty sure that there are some investors here that can help me.

I am planning to invest money into a mutual fund by Oberweis Funds, specifically in the China Opportunities Fund (OBCHX).

I've been watching it for a short time now, and they have been booming.

Is it too late to jump in?
What do you forcast?

Thanks.

ZK

China stocks are still going up and will be in the near future. The economy is booming but there's other factors that increase risk such as govt controls on everything and foreign pressure on China to regulate things more.

I hold a number of Chinese stocks. I believe it will go up in the near future but who knows 4-5 years down the road. If you're looking for a more diversified Intl fund, there's lots of other quality ones out there. You can also save some money by buying China ETF stocks instead of an managed fund.

ldivinag

iTrader: (3)

plus dont forget, the 2008 olympics will be in beijing so that might factor in a slight upswing.

ish

iTrader: (7)

You should talk to BabySmurf about that one. She puts that fund together.

lazybummm

iTrader: (3)

Who's babysmurf? she puts the fund together? That is someone who must be very knowledgeable and a great resource.

The Chinese government has so much influence on the market, some people I know don't even consider it to be a real stock market. My dad and sister follow and trade stocks and funds in the Chinese market(HK and ShangHai), they seem to be confident in stocks in China.

During the recent drop, FXI got to as low as around 92 something? now its back up to around 108 today...I didn't get in at the lowest point of 92 something, but my sister told me to pick up some fxi after it dropped, granted it wasn't many shares I could buy, but I am happy. Well, it will still probably go up more, don't expect the 130% annual return, but I think it will outperform major indexes in the US.

More and more people in China are trading now. As such, I think more money will be poured into the market at least in the near future. I think everyone and anyone will be buying stocks as it still is a "fad" and people think it's easy money. I saw on CCTV(Chinese TV) when they interviewed retirees hanging out at stock brokers to buy and sell stocks to make more money for their retirement, and the places are packed...With all the positives in mind, do proceed with caution. Like anywhere else, the richest and most powerful people(including fund managers with institutions) get together and dictate performance, so, really anything can happen, but one thing for sure, the rich will get richer...

WindingRoad

iTrader: (15)

thanks, i just sent her a pm.

babysmurf

iTrader: (4)

I'm not sure why you picked out a China specific fund, but let me give you my quick take:

Overall, I'm sure most people are sold on the China story: excessive GDP growth, FDI soaring, WTO committments to contribute even more GDP growth, population of over 1.3bn people, etc. And by now, the belief of rising middle class, growing infrastructure spending on the gov't part, 11th 5-yr plan reforms contributing to strong growth, etc. etc. Will this contribute to rising stock prices? In the past, I think the excessive risks surrounding China from the eyes of a foreign investor had been priced into the stock market, so you found opportunities in the price range of maybe 6x forward P/E. Today obviously the market place is in a different spot. A-share market has gone up over 120% in '06 while H-share market place (HK) saw a 80% return. So with so much price appreciation, is now a good time to enter the market?

Your guess is as good as mine. No one has a crystal ball when looking at the stock market, and timing the market has never led to excessive return. Here are factors to consider: Do you believe in the China story? If you believe there is room for growth for at least the next 10 years, then perhaps you should consider investing. I'm not saying it won't be volatile, but as always: high risk can lead to high return.

What do I see?
OBCHX, as you can research, focuses on small to mid capitilization companies. The firm as a whole has been focused on this market cap spectrum since the firm's inception in the 80's and consider ourselves specialists in this space. We have ported our investment philosophy from the US to China. We mainly focus on the smaller companies because that is where we find information inefficiencies which is how/where we make our money. The less followed, the less looked at companies, the better it is for us and the more opportunities we find. When we launched the fund 1.5 years ago, yes, we found stocks trading at 4x P/E. Now they are maybe 12x P/E. Relative to growth rates, these opportunities are less than 0.5 PEG ratio which is still cheap compared to the US stock market.

At any rate, for more information you can visit the firm's website:
www.oberweisinvest.com or www.oberweis.net

Also, have found the message board on finance.yahoo.com to be rather interesting.

I can not disclose holdings or much more information since it is a publicly traded mutual fund. Hope this has helped!

-babysmurf (aka vanessa)

babysmurf

iTrader: (4)

The way I see it, but of course I'm biased, is when you buy individual stocks, you have to monitor the companies yourself, and you may not be the first to know information about the company since you are not in a position to. By buying a mutual fund, you pay the management fee in hopes that your manager knows about the companies better, has more time to monitor the companies, and also has better access to information than the average investor.

Just my point of view!
-bbsmurf

WindingRoad

iTrader: (15)

thanks for the response vanessa.
i'm considering buying in the next couple days.

WindingRoad

iTrader: (15)

vanessa, what is your take on OBIOX?

i know you can't tell me much, but just a glimpse please.

babysmurf

iTrader: (4)

great time would have been after the correction after chinese new year
but there you go, people trying to time the market, everyone sold instead of loaded up. personally i invested in OBIOX during that dip since i'm already exposed to OBCHX with an equity stake in the fund....

babysmurf

iTrader: (4)

i know the managers, obviously, and think they are very smart. there's def. contribution between the two funds and think of obiox taking best of china ideas and adding in europe, japan, and other regions of the world... as you read in the prospectus, similar model to our US and China funds in that it also targets small/mid cap companies and looks at aggressive growth (AGARP) companies.

babysmurf

iTrader: (4)

also, if you'd like to learn more about the fund, next time i'm back in the bay, if time can be found, you can pick my brain on my further thoughts on china and how a lot of business works there as well as the competitive landscape with so much "hot" money flowing into china.

WindingRoad

iTrader: (15)

for sure.

last time we met, you were telling me the story of how you stole the rotora sponsorship from someone else on the track. haha.